“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence” – Charles Bukowski.

I first came across this quote years ago, and it’s still relevant today. Time and again, overconfident fools rise to power while intelligent, self-aware people hesitate, held back by doubt. Lately, I’ve been digging into why this happens — and as it turns out, Bukowski’s observation may have a basis in scientific fact. What I’ve discovered has been eye-opening, so I wanted to share some of it here.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

In the late 90s, psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger conducted a study on the relationship between skill and confidence. They found that people who lack competence in a particular area tend to be the most overconfident. This is because without the necessary knowledge or experience, they lack the ability to accurately assess their own performance, leading them to believe they are more capable than they actually are. The phenomenon became known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

The Negative Feedback Loop

Misplaced overconfidence tends to reinforce itself. The more a person overestimates their intelligence, the less likely they are to seek new knowledge or update their beliefs. Interestingly, absolute beginners are less prone to the Dunning-Kruger effect; it’s those with a little knowledge who are most susceptible. A basic understanding of a subject can create a false sense of mastery, making individuals overconfident while stripping them of the humility needed to continue learning.

The Stages of Competence

The Dunning-Kruger effect reminds me of the four stages of competence, a model I first encountered while training to be a teacher.

Learners progress through four stages: unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence, conscious competence, and unconscious competence.

Take learning a second language as an example:

• Stage 1 – Unconscious Incompetence: The student lacks the knowledge to recognize their mistakes or even understand what they’re doing wrong. They are unaware of their own incompetence.
• Stage 2 – Conscious Incompetence: The student now has enough knowledge to identify gaps in their understanding but still struggles with errors.
• Stage 3 – Conscious Competence: The student can use the language correctly but must concentrate to maintain accuracy.
• Stage 4 – Unconscious Competence: The student has fully internalized the language and speaks naturally, without conscious effort — almost as if it were their first language.

How does this connect to Dunning-Kruger? Overconfident yet incompetent individuals remain stuck in unconscious incompetence — they don’t know what they don’t know. Because they lack the ability to recognize their own mistakes, they assume they aren’t making any.

Connecting the Dots

As American professor Adam Grant puts it, true success requires confidence in our ability to achieve future goals while maintaining the humility to question whether we have the right tools in the present. This means embracing self-awareness, staying open to learning, and being willing to adapt. Confidence should push us forward, but humility should keep us grounded, allowing us to improve without falling into either crippling self-doubt or blind arrogance.

With this in mind, it’s not worth getting angry at those who rise through sheer, unshakable confidence despite lacking real ability. Instead, it’s a reminder to focus on our own growth. The world will always have its fair share of loud, overconfident fools, but the best way to counter them isn’t frustration — it’s becoming someone whose quiet competence speaks for itself.