“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.”
I first heard this Bukowski quote as an undergraduate. It struck a chord because I was both insecure and arrogant at the same time. This paradox is quite common. When we’re young, we can’t handle our insecurities being exposed. We’re scared and ashamed, so we hide them, sometimes even from ourselves. One of the easiest ways to do this is to pretend we never feel uncertain and that we are the best. During the dark (i.e., real) moments at university when that arrogant mask slipped, I’d use the Bukowski quote to re-affix it again: “Sure, I have doubts, but only because I am highly intelligent!”
In my twenties, I travelled around Asia and met different types of people from all over the world. I had tonnes of conversations with kind and introspective people, trying to figure out their place in the world and how they could contribute. Whether they wanted to start a business, begin a family, or simply continue to learn and grow, each had one thing in common – they were constantly questioning their decisions and themselves. Whilst travelling, I also met another kind of person: the quintessential alcoholic expat who seemed so sure of themselves and their (often racist) views. I’d watch them having the time of their lives, jigging with local girls in rundown bars, while the Bukowski quote danced around my mind.
As I’ve grown older, I’ve began to take more interest in how our world is run. It’s the same story time and again: overly confident yet highly incompetent politicians (Trump, Johnson, etc.) are elected into office. Meanwhile, I have daily conversations with clever, kind, people, who would never dream of getting into politics because they ‘lack the confidence to make decisions that would affect so many lives.’ In relation to this political conundrum, the Bukowski quote makes me even more angry. Why does it have to be this way? Frustrated by my inability to answer the question I began to do some research.
As it turns out, the phenomenon Bukowski describes might be rooted in scientific fact. I’ve been blown away by the things I’ve found, so I thought I’d share some of them here. My hope is that if you’re similar to the kind, intelligent, but self-doubting people I’ve met over the years, you might gain some solace from it.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
In the late nineties, David Dunning and Justin Kruger decided to conduct a study on skill and confidence. Their research revealed that people tend to be most overconfident when they lack competence, because those who lack the ability to do something are often unaware of their shortcomings.
Adam Grant explains that Dunning-Kruger participants who scored lowest on logical reasoning, grammar, and sense of humour tests had inflated opinions of their skills. On average, they believed they outperformed 62% of their peers, when in reality they outperformed only 12%.
What does this mean?
The less intelligent someone is in a specific area, the more likely they are to overestimate their intelligence in that area. Grant uses the analogy of a football fan: the one with the least knowledge is most likely to act as an armchair quarterback, criticizing the coach’s decisions and suggesting a better playbook.
Dunning-Kruger only refers to the overconfidence of individuals who lack skill in a particular task; it makes no claims about general overconfidence in people with low intelligence. But if someone repeatedly fails at tasks without recognising these failures, surely we can consider them to lack intelligence?
The Negative Feedback Loop
Misplaced overconfidence tends to feed on itself. The more an individual overestimates their intelligence, the less inclined they are to learn and update their knowledge. Absolute beginners are less likely to fall into the Dunning-Kruger trap; it is when a person has some knowledge that they become overconfident, because their basic knowledge of the subject diminishes their humility.
Conversely, high performers tend to underestimate their abilities due to their heightened reasoning faculties, and while constant self-questioning can be the sign of a highly intelligent individual, it can also hinder progress as they are too afraid to act.
The Stages of Competence
Dunning-Kruger reminds me of the four stages of competence, a model I was introduced to while training to be a teacher.
Learners fall into one of four stages: unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence, conscious competence, and unconscious competence.
For example, when learning a second language:
Stage 1: The student lacks the knowledge to recognize their mistakes or even understand where they are going wrong. They are unaware of their own incompetence.
Stage 2: The student possesses enough knowledge to identify gaps in their understanding but continues to make mistakes.
Stage 3: The student no longer makes mistakes but must concentrate to maintain this level of accuracy.
Stage 4: The student has fully integrated the knowledge and uses the language naturally, without conscious effort, as if it were their first language.
How does this relate to Dunning-Kruger? Overconfident and incompetent individuals are stuck in unconscious incompetence: they are unaware of what they do not know, which leads them to believe they do in fact know.
Connecting the Dots
How can we turn the Bukowski quote to our advantage and use these findings to improve our lives? The key lies in striking a balance. Doubt ourselves too much and we unnecessarily hold ourselves back. Fail to doubt ourselves at all and we’re stuck in unconscious incompetence. As Grant puts it, we need to be confident in our ability to achieve our future goals, while maintaining the humility to question whether we possess the necessary tools in the present.